Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 2.004313 2.122995 2.247747 2.389119 2.545456 2.713717 2.909394
2025-10-12 1.851773 2.018689 2.202705 2.422358 2.679762 2.974858 3.343250
2025-10-19 1.757394 1.953131 2.176042 2.452038 2.789452 3.195295 3.731369
2025-10-26 1.666491 1.878972 2.126956 2.442806 2.842150 3.341754 4.034171
2025-11-02 1.591013 1.815175 2.082153 2.430404 2.883666 3.470812 4.321134
2025-11-09 1.516651 1.746775 2.025377 2.395969 2.890130 3.549582 4.542290
2025-11-16 1.451173 1.684937 1.971962 2.360327 2.889424 3.614741 4.746525
2025-11-23 1.408536 1.648879 1.948245 2.360500 2.934906 3.745266 5.060513
2025-11-30 1.378170 1.626372 1.939948 2.379449 3.005982 3.916623 5.458110
2025-12-07 1.329778 1.578252 1.895363 2.345500 2.998007 3.967660 5.662580
2025-12-14 1.279888 1.526103 1.842936 2.297401 2.965391 3.976777 5.794152
2025-12-21 1.239166 1.484412 1.802619 2.263898 2.951574 4.013064 5.976802
2025-12-28 1.225867 1.479096 1.811932 2.302508 3.050582 4.242077 6.555974
2026-01-04 1.211523 1.471689 1.817830 2.336170 3.144060 4.471336 7.180102
2026-01-11 1.196244 1.462208 1.820079 2.364012 3.229620 4.695182 7.839175
2026-01-18 1.170219 1.436994 1.798978 2.355319 3.254755 4.813402 8.292570
2026-01-25 1.144870 1.411809 1.776817 2.343625 3.273628 4.921265 8.744582
2026-02-01 1.114635 1.378891 1.742334 2.311149 3.255064 4.956274 9.027484
2026-02-08 1.085658 1.346911 1.708128 2.277517 3.232278 4.980722 9.289326
2026-02-15 1.068106 1.330452 1.695862 2.277681 3.267784 5.122970 9.895880
2026-02-22 1.056514 1.322005 1.694916 2.295563 3.335353 5.337011 10.764345
2026-03-01 1.031560 1.293846 1.663878 2.263521 3.311059 5.357221 11.069018
2026-03-08 1.003997 1.261335 1.625490 2.218095 3.259917 5.315830 11.175315